The article proposes an approach to modeling and ranking scenarios of destructive cyberattacks on corporate information and communication systems, based on the proposed iterative MRRW-PageRank algorithm. Unlike methods that rely on expert assessments or large language models to determine transition probabilities between network nodes, the proposed method utilizes only the structural topology of the network. The algorithm establishes interdependence between node importance (e.g., database servers) and the weights of links leading to them, simulating an adversary.s strategy aimed at reaching critical resources via the most probable paths. Using a typical corporate network as a case study, the method.s effectiveness is demonstrated in identifying critical intrusion paths and ranking attack scenarios by risk. This approach is particularly relevant during network design phases or initial security audits, when empirical data on vulnerabilities or incidents are unavailable.

Keywords

MRRW-PageRank, cyber risk analysis, penetration scenarios, corporate network, link weights, topological analysis, logical-probabilistic modeling, cybersecurity